Retail Sales, Adp Jobs Report Beat Expectations

Flash Update: US RATE MARKETS – WEDNESDAY APRIL 1, 2026

• UST yields and SOFR swap rates are holding mostly steady this morning as traders digest economic data and anxiously monitor war developments

• US officials continue to ramp up diplomatic efforts to end the war

• SOFR swap rates have dropped this week on optimism that a resolution to the conflict is within sight

• Traders continue to grapple with a range of possible outcomes for the war in the Middle East

• Retail Sales for February exceeded expectations in all categories, underscoring the resilience of the US consumer

• The March ADP Employment Change showed private payrolls increased more-than-expected (+62k vs. +40k expected)

• Traders will continue to track volatile equity markets, specifically the technology and AI sectors

• Market participants will continue to monitor developments with the DOJ investigation into the US Central Bank

• The war in the Middle East remains the primary focus for the rate markets

• The next FOMC rate decision is due Wednesday, April 29th at 2:00 PM

• Next up for data: The March Employment Report is due on Friday, 4/3 at 8:30 AM

• Short-term SOFR swap rates are trading up ~1 bp this morning, depending on tenor

• Medium-term SOFR swap rates are up ~1-2 bps currently, depending on tenor

• Long-end SOFR swap rates are up ~1 bp this morning, depending on tenor

Good Morning – US Treasury yields and SOFR swap rates are holding mostly steady this morning as traders digest economic data and anxiously monitor developments in the Iran War. Short-end rates are currently up less than a basis point; the medium and long sectors of the curve are a bp or two higher. The strong economic data we saw this morning and a lack of “real” progress on the diplomatic front of the War are causing traders to hold-off for now on taking rates any lower. Traders will need to see real progress toward a diplomatic resolution before pushing rates lower.

Overall, market sentiment indicates trades and investors believe there will be a diplomatic solution, and we have seen that play out this week via lower rates and higher equity prices. The 2-year SOFR swap rate was trading at 3.79% one week ago and poised to move higher – right now, the two year swap rate is trading at 3.63%, ~15 bps lower! Prepare for the possibility of whip-saw rate movements as the negotiations between the US and Iran unfold – or conversely, if they do not unfold. Either development is likely to increase rate volatility.

War developments and the associated “headlines” will continue to be the primary market catalysts for the near term.I advise staying nimble if you have upcoming caps or swaps to execute – market dynamics can and will change quickly as war “developments” unfold.

In short, there is mounting optimism that we are indeed approaching a turning point in the conflict – if the war is favorably resolved in the next few days (or week) we could see rates continue to drop, and drop dramatically. Regardless of which way the conflict outcome leans, we are likely to continue to see elevated levels of rate volatility as the market absorbs war developments and news headlines. It may take a few weeks for volatility to settle down and level-off. For the time being, market participants will continue to anxiously monitor the latest war developments.

News the market is tracking includes:

• Geopolitical developments continue to weigh on market sentiment.The US/Iran “war” continues to dominate market sentiment this week. The end result of the US attack on Iran is difficult to forecast at this time.

• SCOTUS is also currently ruling on the legality of the President firing of the Fed’s Lisa Cook. There are some reports stating that SCOTUS is nearing a final decision on that case, which could have far reaching implications for the US Central Bank.

• The US Justice Department investigation into the US Central Bank and Chairman Powell will remain a key market focus moving forward.

• Market participants continue to closely track developments in the US equities markets. There is still a sharp focus on the performance of the growing AI sector. Market sentiment is likely to be impacted by “tech” earnings for the foreseeable future.

• The market continues to monitor US political developments. US political developments will remain a major focus for the market for the foreseeable future.

• Traders and investors continue to assess the market implications of the recent SCOTUS ruling on President Trump’s tariffs. Market participants await more data and information.

• Market participants are growing more and more concerned with the ongoing “partial” government shutdown. Traders are hoping the situation is resolved quickly – a full government shut-down would be extremely challenging to manage during a war.

SOFR Swap Rate Summary: The 1Y SOFR swap rate is trading up ~2-3 bps this morning. 2Y and 3Y SOFR swap rates are currently trading up ~3-4 bps. 5Y and 10Y SOFR swap rates are trading up ~3-4 bps on the day. The very back-end of the swap curve is currently trading up ~2-3 bps from yesterday’s closing levels.  

Please note: Market levels can change rapidly – rate cap premiums are subject to a dynamic market that can change frequently.

CHART 1:US RATES SNAPSHOT: 9:30 AM Eastern

*For SOFR Swap Rates & Change-On-Day (In Bps): Refer Two Far Right Columns (SOFR Swap Rates)

UST YIELDS | SWAP SPREADS | SOFR SWAP RATES

Source: Bloomberg, LLP | 9:30 AM NY Rates Snapshot

CHART 2, 2A, 2B & 2C: SOFR SWAP RATES MOSTLY STEADY AS TRADERS MONITOR WAR DEVELOPMENTS

Currently, the growing optimism that a diplomatic solution will be reached in the Middle East war is keeping swap rates trending lower this week. This morning, rates are bouncing around a bit – overall they are holding mostly steady. Traders are digesting the positive economic data we saw earlier this morning (Retail Sales, ADP), while at the same time closely monitoring the fast-moving developments in Middle East conflict.

We are likely to be subject to elevated levels of rate volatility as the diplomatic/negotiation process unfolds. That, of course, presumes that Iran will capitulate and sit down at the negotiating table. I still believe that, should a resolution be reached quickly, we could see rates drop, potentially quickly and dramatically, as the energy and rate markets correct. However, make no mistake – should negotiations collapse, or lead nowhere, the conflict could ramp up again and reach a new level of intensity. In that case, there is plenty of room for rates to move higher from here.

Key Swap Rate Movement Since The War Began:The 2-year SOFR swap rate closed at 3.21% on Friday 2/27 – it is currently trading at ~3.63% (+42 bps). The 5-year SOFR swap rate closed at 3.22% on Friday 2/27 – it is currently trading at ~3.64% (+42 bps). The 10-year SOFR swap rates has experienced a similar move – it closed Friday 2/27 at 3.52% and is currently trading at ~3.88% (+36 bps).

CHART 2:Short-End SOFR Swap Rates – Since 2/19/2026

Source: Bloomberg, LLP | 1Y (white), 2Y (blue) & 3Y (orange) SOFR SWAP RATES, PRIOR 30 TRADING SESSIONS

CHART 2A:Long-End SOFR Swap Rates – Since 2/19/2026

Source: Bloomberg, LLP | 5Y (green), 7Y (purple) & 10Y (light blue) SOFR SWAP RATES, PRIOR 30 TRADING SESSIONS

CHART 2B:US Treasury Yield Curve – Change Since The Iran War Began

Source: StreetStats | US Treasury Yield Curve – Today vs. Feb 27, 2026

CHART 2C:Interest Rate Volatility Dips, But Remains At Elevated Levels

Source: Bloomberg, LLP | MOVE VOLATILITY INDEX – YEAR-TO-DATE

CHART 3: STRONG FEBRUARY RETAIL SALES RESULT UNDERSCORES RESILIENCE OF US CONSUMERS

US retail sales increased in February by more than forecast in a broad advance that included a rebound in auto purchases. Headline retail purchases increased 0.6% (vs. 0.5% estimated). Retail Sales less autos for February grew 0.4%, beating expectations calling for a gain of 0.3%.

The strong February Retail Sales figures indicates that US consumer demand was holding up ahead of the Iran war, helped by wage growth that is still outpacing inflation, and larger tax refunds. Overall, the data was well received by the market – however, the Retail Sales data is backward looking, so there is some market trepidation about how the war in the Middle East, and higher gasoline prices, may impact US consumer spending.

CHART 3:February Retail Sales Beats Expectations; Prior Month’s Results Revised Higher

Source: Bloomberg, LLP | FEBRUARY RETAIL SALES RESULTS

RCA Product & Pricing Update:

Product Spotlight: What We Are Seeing In The Rates & Derivatives Markets

The market is again facing tremendous uncertainty surrounding the path forward for interest rates. Borrowers should be as nimble as possible in this market environment. Cap purchasers should onboard as quickly as possible – there is no cost to onboard. It is important to be in a position to take advantage of market opportunities quickly and efficiently.

Given the uncertainty that still remains about forward rates, many clients are grappling with when or if to extend. This is a difficult question – our advice has been to monitor the market closely and be on-boarded and ready to trade, should the market move in your favor. We also advise borrowers to check the market pricing for extensions, similar to how you purchased the original cap. Market pricing discovery is a key component to any cap transaction – new caps, extensions or terminations.

There is an increasing interest in exploring interest rate swaps as a possible hedge alternative. IR Swaps lock in a synthetic fixed rate and do not require an upfront premium. Unlike an interest rate cap, swaps are secured derivatives, so the counterparty selection process is more challenging with a swap. There are also additional variables that factor into the decision to pursue an interest rate swap, or to unwind an existing swap. We are also seeing a dramatic increase in swap termination advisory requests recently, as clients contemplate refinancings. Lower rates have sparked refinancing activity, which in some cases necessitates unwinding an existing swap. Please let us know if you would like to learn more about interest rate swaps, or swap terminations.

We are still seeing some residual demand for interest rate floor indications – to offset high loan floors or simply to benefit from declining variable rates. Borrowers who have “floors” embedded in their loans have been considering purchasing a separate, stand-alone interest rate floor to offset the loan floor.

Interest Rate Cap Hub: Pricing & Volatility Update for 4/1/2026

• Cap premiums ticked lower this week on optimism a diplomatic solution to the war can be reached

• Rate volatility has ticked significantly higher since the onset of the Middle East conflict

• Current 1-Month Term SOFR = 3.66484% (Prior day: 3.66479%)

Pricing Matrix:1-Week Movement In 1-Month Term SOFR Cap Premiums

*Indications as of market open. Premium levels provided are indications only and subject to change.

^NOTE: MARKET DYNAMICS AND PRICING CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY IN THIS MARKET ENVIRONMENT.

WE RECOMMEND YOU CALL US FOR ACCURATE, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE CAP INDICATIONS.

Please contact us if you would like to discuss an upcoming rate cap or rate cap extension, explore ways to reduce or eliminate escrow deposits for replacement caps or learn more about interest rate Caps, Floors, Swaps or Swaptions. RCA can also assist you with the voluntary early termination of your cap or swap.

HedgeWithAnEdge-TheRCAEdge!

Disclaimer: The information provided in this communication is intended for discussion purposes only. Nothing presented in this communication should be taken as a recommendation or forecast. All market data shown is indicative only and subject to change depending on current market conditions. The information in this publication is confidential and is intended for the recipient only.