Rates Holding Mostly Steady as Traders Digest Ceasfire Extension and Assess War Outlook

RATE MARKETS UPDATE: April 23, 2026

Rates are generally holding steady this morning, as the market is clearly pausing to see what can be accomplished by diplomatic efforts to end the war. That said, traders are still feeling a high level of trepidation surrounding the ultimate outcome of the war, or perhaps more accurately, the path to that outcome. The extension of the ceasefire was positive news, but the uncertain “go forward” timetable does not provide a clear path forward for markets. Additionally, we are still seeing limited skirmishes and hostilities, albeit nothing like the “full on” war we witnessed in the first month of the conflict. Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz remains, for all intents and purposes, closed to tanker traffic, and oil prices are still hovering between $90-$100 a barrel.

I expect rates to continue to bounce around in a tight range as market participants patiently await concrete “negotiations” developments. The longer the ceasefire drags on without a “resolution”, the more nervous traders will become. Rates may also tick higher if oil surpasses $100 a barrel.

I still believe that a diplomatic resolution of the conflict will lead to lower rates and softer volatility. I expect rates to gradually decline as the dislocated energy markets settle down and stabilize. I would caution that if diplomatic efforts collapse or drag on indefinitely, inflation fears will roar back to life, and rates will move higher. There are still many wildcards at work – from my perspective, this conflict is far from over.

SOFR swap rates are currently trading flat to down one bp from last night’s closing levels. See below for a market snapshot as of 10:30 am eastern, and the change in SOFR swap rates since the war began.

Key Swap Rate Movements Since The US/Iran War Began:

• The 2-year SOFR swap rate closed at 3.21% on Friday 2/27 – it is currently trading at ~3.623%(+41.3 bps).

• The 5-year SOFR swap rate closed at 3.22% on Friday 2/27 – it is currently trading at ~3.613(+39.3 bps).

• The 10-year SOFR swap rate closed at 3.52% on Friday 2/27 – it is currently trading at ~3.848%(+32.8 bps).

CHART 1: US RATES SNAPSHOT: 10:30 AM Eastern

Chart 1 Key:

• Far Left Columns:US Treasury Yields & Change on Day (bps)

• Center Columns:Market SOFR Swap Spreads (bps) & Change on Day (bps)

• Far Right Columns:SOFR OIS Swap Rates & Change on Day (bps)

Source: Bloomberg, LLP | 10:30 AM NY Rates Snapshot

Disclaimer: The information provided in this communication is intended for discussion purposes only. Nothing presented in this communication should be taken as a recommendation or forecast. All market data shown is indicative only and subject to change depending on current market conditions. The information in this publication is confidential and is intended for the recipient only.